A watershed or a wash-out?

Next Tuesday the most eagerly anticipated US Presidential election in years will take place and, of course, it could ...and should..provide a historic first, a watershed in American history, a turning point where black Americans can truly feel they have the same standing and respect as whites, the day when America elects a black president for the first time.

Obama is, by most counts, streets ahead in the polls. But there seems to be a very strange atmosphere in the Democratic camp - and it's not simply the necessary modesty that precedes the crowning of their champion. There is genuine fear gripping the gut that the polls are misrepresenting the truth, that the large numbers of 'undecided' voters are not really undecided at all, but in fact cannot bring themselves to vote for a black man, but don't like to admit it.



In the aftermath of the Iraq War and, frankly, one of the most hideous Presidencies in my long lifetime, there has been more interest in this election outside the United States than I can ever remember. The reason is obvious. Americans may not see this, or like it, but the national reputation of the United States as a force for good in the world has been terribly tarnished under George W Bush. Europeans, by a margin of about 10 to 1, are longing for an Obama presidency for Europe sees Obama as someone who can change the image of the United States for the better. Someone who will bring a wise and very different approach to, particularly, foreign affairs.

Of course, as a dear friend in Connecticut once told me, for an American politician to be loved by Europeans does not necessarily enhance his electoral chances in the United States which has different priorities.

John McCain is not a bad man. He is not another Bush. But he has found it very hard to prove to anyone that the same tired Republican policies of Bush will not be continued should he win on Tuesday. He is talking about 'winning in Iraq' and that for a start shows a completely unrealistic assessment of the situation on the ground. He has picked a Vice Presidential nominee in Sarah Palin, who may have done brave things as Governor of Alaska but her attitudes are reactionary and her understanding of world politics naive to the point of absurdity.



So many people who care about politics in Europe are holding their breath - just as are the Democratic Party. Will America do the right thing on Tuesday? Will it cross that line of prejudice and bigotry and usher in a new era where a good, intelligent black man with the middle name of Hussein is elected to the top political job in the world. Or will it fall back on fear, resentment and racial prejudice to, almost furtively, vote for an elderly white man with health problems, and whose campaign has been ragged, disorganised and , at times, down and dirty to a degree which was revolting,- simply because he is not a black man?

McCain does not deserve the Presidency on the basis of performance on the campaign trail or of policies offered. But he might still creep in through the back door thanks to the bigotry and prejudice of enough voters who said one thing but do another. It is an unpleasant prospect but one which, however much it turns the rational stomach, might have to be confronted on Wednesday morning.