Whither now, America?

So now we know the line up for the big Presidential election in November. On one side a young black man who is so concerned that he doesn't represent a considerable swathe of core voters that he has brought in a running mate more in line with his party's expectations..... and on the other side, an elderly white man who is so concerned that he doesn't represent a considerable swathe of core voters that he has brought in a running mate more in line with his party's expectations.

Similar concerns about getting elected but such different choices for America. I think this election is incredibly fascinating because the Presidential choice is on a knife edge and for once the choice of Vice President elect could swing this one way or the other.

The mood of the United States electorate is incredibly hard to fathom. In a sense the two Presidential candidates both run the risk of losing the support of their own party faithful by a wrong word here or there.

For the Democrats, I feel that the gloss of Obama being the brand new kid-on-the-block is not so much of a magnet as it was and it is clear, despite the efforts of Bill and Hillary Clinton to bring the whole Democratic Party onside, there is still a simmering anger among a sizable number of supporters that Hillary is not on the ticket. There have been comments in the States too, about the nature of the Democratic Convention which had all the trappings of a coronation. I bitterly recall Neil Kinnock making the mistake of looking and appearing triumphal on the eve of the 1992 British election for which he was favourite...and he suffered at the polls as a result. I hope the same fate does not befall Barack Obama.



Sad though it is, I suspect the colour of Obama's skin, allied to his background, will also play a part, come November, with some traditional Democratic voters - particularly from the white working class. That, of course, is one of the reasons why Joe Biden is on the ticket. Biden was born into a working class Irish Catholic family and fought for everything he achieved later in life. He also has considerable foreign policy experience which Obama lacks and he can stand up fairly and squarely in front of factory gates and say 'Look guys I'm one of you'. There are downsides and he has been famed for some notable gaffes in the past.



For the Republicans, I believe the Party hierarchy wished they had almost any viable candidate except John McCain. He represents few of the values of the current Republican administration having attacked George Bush on everything from his Iraq strategy to his taxation policy, producing a degree of fury within the Party bosses. But despite all efforts he triumphed in the primaries and has to be taken seriously. Although noted for his common-sense and lack of GOP dogma, McCain is still quite a hawk on Iraq and, despite the image he likes to convey about being liberal on the subject, firmly anti-abortion - maybe the two issues which divide him most from Obama. In many ways, I like and respect McCain but his militaristic stances on the middle east worry me greatly. I feel he is intent on pursuing already failed policies.



His biggest problem for the electorate is going to be his age. If elected in November, McCain will be 72 by the time he takes office in January 2009, the oldest President to serve a first term in American history. He has also had some health concerns. So his choice of running mate was also watched with a keen eye to see what kind of a complement the choice made and whether, should McCain be elected, the VP would be the right person to take over were he to succumb to old age.

The choice has proved not only unexpected but startling and daring. Sarah Palin, at 44, is younger than Obama but is clearly a bright and pretty ruthless politician, taking on the party hierarchy in Alaska, to become Governor of the State in 2006. Before that she was Mayor of a small town of 6000 people. She is a traditional Republican conservative, firmly anti abortion, a member of the NRA who describes herself a 'a typical hockey mom'. In short the white American middle class ideal.



Herein likes the beauty of this election and the gut feelings of the electorate. Will those of the uncommitted dithering about the choice of McCain now be swayed by his choice of a young female running-mate clearly intent on going places? Or will they think of McCain's age and the fact that, only a heartbeat from the Presidency, is a young woman with hardly any executive experience? Will they look at Obama and decide that this young African American man with so much charisma is the guy to lead the US out of the Bush years. Or will they start to wonder, as the election nears, that maybe there is more showbiz than substance and that they would be safer with an old right wing maverick? Will Joe Biden prove to be a plus for Obama, dragging in the blue-collar vote which so clearly favoured Hillary Clinton, or will Biden make one of his major gaffes which blow the Democrats out of the water? I can't help but feel, exciting though it was, that the long drawn out Democratic primary battle has done damage to the unity of the Party and to Obama's chances of the Presidency.

I hope not, and personally I hope America takes a giant leap of faith and votes Barack Obama in as President elect in November. There is a real chance of a breath of fresh air running through US attitudes to world problems which I don't see with McCain. McCain might not be Bush..but if he wins I see the same depressing reliance on American military might in the middle east and I sincerely believe that is a policy doomed to failure and will make the problems of world terrorism considerably worse.