Tuesday, August 12, 2008

A complex mess that needs careful diplomacy

One of Britain's newspapers this week referred to the Russian tanks rolling into South Ossetia as 'While the world wasn't watching' - and, of course, there is probably some truth in the fact that the timing was not entirely accidental, and that the world would be concentrating on the opening of the Olympic Games in Beijing.

But let's not pretend that this is just another case of Russia behaving like the old Soviet Union. The behaviour of the Georgian government, in the days before the Russian response was, if anything, even more sneaky and disreputable. Their attempts to reinforce their territorial claims to South Ossetia were crude, heavy-handed and clearly misguided.



The situation of South Ossetia has long been complex. A semi autonomous region under the Tsar, it was absorbed into Georgia by Soviet decree in 1923 and has never been happy with that status. The problem for the west is that, when the Soviet Union broke up, the United Nations accepted the boundaries of the new independent republics in line with that early Soviet demarcation. So the UN - and in particular the United States, is diplomatically honour bound to support the claims of Georgia to the territory.

Who knows what goes on behind the scenes, but I think it ill behove the Americans to produce their predictable anti-Russian knee jerk, accusing them of 'invading a sovereign territory' after the experience with Iraq. Have they no blushes? President Saakashvili of Georgia proved his youth and inexperience by giving the Russians a perfect excuse to 'protect the people of South Ossetia' by his rash decision to try to retake the territory by force and failing miserably.



Back in the early 90's immediately after the break up of the Soviet Union, the South Ossetian independence movement attempted a breakaway from Georgia, and the move was put down with ruthless cruelty by the Georgian military, over 1000 people being killed. At that time Russia threatened to invade Georgia if its troops did not withdraw and allow South Ossetia a chance of self determination. A referendum was held (which Georgia refused to recognise as legitimate) and South Ossetia became 'de facto' independent although Georgia continued to maintain its territorial claims. In the years since that referendum, Georgia has tried to starve the region into submission, denying it power and supplies..so they turned, naturally, to the Russians.



This whole episode smacks of very poor statesmanship and political thinking, Saakashvili appearing to think that his western allies would dive in to help his rash military decision.

And this of course is another issue which fires the kindling flames between Russia and its neighbour. Georgia wants to join NATO. Its President is young, pro American, pro free market - and the Russians detest him. They fear a Georgia in NATO just as the Americans feared rockets in Cuba back in 1962.

Again I think the Europeans have shown sounder judgment than the US on this issue. America has been clamouring to get Georgia admitted into NATO - while European nations, and particularly the Germans, have urged caution. Germany, rightly in my view, has said that while Georgia is in the throes of an internal territorial dispute , it does not have the right qualifications for membership and the issue should be left until the situation in South Ossetia and neighbouring Ajaria is clarified.

Now while Russia can claim an 'honourable' excuse for liberating South Ossetia, it now seems their political and military objectives go much further. They have seen this as an excuse to remove their 'pain in the neck' and it is clear that they are trying to humiliate Georgia to a degree whereby Saakashvili is forced out office.

What does the west do about all this? It clearly should not stand idly by and allow a sovereign nation to be invaded, but neither, in my book, should America be launching its predictable anti Russian rhetoric. Careful, delicate, sound diplomacy is required here because the current situation is very volatile.

What would be a mistake is if the United States begins to treat Russia like the old Soviet Union and we get a re emergence of the cold war. That would be a mis-reading of the situation and a devastating mistake in my view. One can but hope that the United States recognises this too.

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