I posted in my last piece that I think this system of primaries is somewhat flawed in giving an early momentum to one candidate based on a pretty miniscule slice of the American electorate. It seems that I have to eat humble pie a little bit here because the New Hampshire Democratic voters clearly thought the same thing..that it was too early to have a coronation of one candidate and so they voted in some numbers for Hillary Clinton, whose camp apparently thought the best they could hope for was a close second place, right up to the time of the count.
The interesting element in this contest was the role of registered Independents. The US system, which is slightly odd to us Brits, requires electoral registration for one of the political parties or as an Independent. This is because we in England don't have a similar democratic primary system where the voter is involved from start to finish. The Independents can vote in either Republican or Democratic primaries but cannot vote in both.
Therefore the great unknown about New Hampshire was which way the Independents would go for the state has one of the highest number of registered independents, around 40%. It seemed that should most choose to vote in the Democratic primary, their votes would mainly go to Obama but as it turned out, it seems most chose to cast their votes for John McCain in the Republican Primary leaving a clear field for the registered Democrats to decide that issue...and the Clintons had enough credits in the state to pull the election out of the fire.
What happens now? Well I don't claim to be an expert on US politics but I sense that Hillary Clinton still has an uphill battle. She never seemed to be that popular among many of the nation's state Democratic party organisations and the reason she had built up such an apparently convincing lead nationally was that she had looked invincible.
But that was before the Obama effect hit Iowa. Will he prove to be a one hit wonder or will his message be revived in Michigan and on Super Tuesday. My guess is the latter and much of the aura which had surrounded Mrs. Clinton's candidacy has been already washed away.
Last night she had a wonderful unexpected result...but I suspect she may have won the latest battle but may still be on course to lose the war.
I am not so interested in the Republican race, mainly I guess, because I'm hoping that whoever wins the Democratic nomination will become President in November but I do have some regard for John McCain who appears to be the new front runner for the GOP but , looking on the bright side, whoever triumphs in November surely has to be an improvement on Bush!
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