French vote for a new direction - or do they?

Now that the smoke has cleared, Nicolas Sarkozy has won the French Presidential election for, as I write, although the votes are still being counted, the Socialist Segolene Royal has already conceded defeat.

It is not a surprising result given that Mr Sarkozy has always been ahead in the polls but the French appear to have taken a giant leap out of the cocoon in which they have been embedded for many years. While Mme Royal promised more of the same - more state investment, protected salaries, higher pensions etc, Mr. Sarkozy has promised to make the French work harder, has said he will take away a lot of the protectionist benefits which France has enjoyed for many years, reduce taxation and get tough on immigration. In fact a classic right wing agenda.



The French, in a nutshell, have voted for someone they don't like all that much but whose ability inspires their confidence, while rejecting a woman whose views and personality they like a lot but in whom they have no faith.

Whether the 'wind of change blowing through France' will be quite as strong a gust as Mr. Sarkozy originally promised is highly doubtful. In reaching the magic figure on the second ballot he has had to wheeler deal, primarily with Francois Bayrou's centre party, and it is highly doubtful whether the French will be totally made to 'live in the real world' as he originally promised. It will be interesting to see if Mr.Sarkozy's performance, once he is in the Elysee Palace, matches his rhetoric on the campaign trail. My suspicion is that the innate, protectionist comfort zone in which France has long been wrapped will smother him as it has his predecessors.