A Royal flush...or a right Royal disaster?

As a fellow European and interested in how my cross-Channel neighbours jump, I am particularly fascinated by this Sunday's French Presidential election. Whichever way it goes there could be significant changes in the way France relates to its neighbours in Europe and to the rest of the world.

Nicholas Sarkozy

There are three leading contenders, Nicholas Sarkozy from the ruling centre right UMP, or 'Gaullist' Party, Segolene Royal, the Socialist candidate who could become the first woman to lead France, Francois Bayrou the centrist candidate ...but as always darkly lurking in the background is Jean Marie Le Pen of the French National Front whose extreme right wing anti immigrant, anti semitic political message plays strongly enough among a large minority of French citizens to have got him through to the second round in the last Presidential contest.

Jean Marie Le Pen





At present, as I write, Sarkozy has a narrow lead in the polls over Mme Royal by 27% to 25% with Bayrou on 19% and Le Pen frightening half of France and delighting the rest by looking like achieving his best rating yet on 16%.

The three leading candidates all, in a sense offer something new for France. Sarkozy is an unashamed admirer of both the United States and the UK and has said he wants to build bridges with both countries. That does not mean, I suggest, that Sarkozy will in any way abandon the French independent stance that so marked the Chirac years but may become more conciliatory and supportive of American and British international positions.

Segolene Royal would, if elected, become the first female President of France and she is certainly personable, attractive and has crowd appeal. However a couple of things go against her success on Sunday. She is a very traditional Socialist and many of her campaign pledges would not sound out of place in a British Labour Party manifesto of the 60s and 70s. On the surface her plans to ensure full employment in France sound attractive but, unfortunately for her, she has a track record to defend. Mme Royal is currently regional President of Poitou-Charentes on the west coast of France which she used as her Socialist 'guinea-pig' setting up businesses and enterprises to ensure that the youth of the region had jobs. Unfortunately, rather than attract private enterprise to the region, her policy has had the opposite effect and now many of the jobs are seen to be 'pseudo jobs' maintained by the Regional government. So if her policies fail regionally, many say, why should we vote for them nationally?

The other factor is the French voting system. As French electors look at the candidates and at the opinion polls they see the frailty of Mme Royal's regional success and her lack of experience nationally. They see the threat of Le Pen and they see Nicholas Sarkozy as a Gaullist many do not want.

Segolene Royal

I think M.Sarkozy's vote among the centre right is pretty solid. I don't think Segolene Royal is in a similar strong position and come Sunday I can see her being overtaken by the Centrist Bayrou and it being a Sarkozy/Bayrou battle in the second round. Bayrou, the 'quiet man' has taken the pundits by surprise by his rise up the polls. His gentle insistence on France playing a more positive leadership role in the EU seems to have struck a chord. He could spring a major surprise and I suspect it will be Segolene Royal who will suffer the consequences. We will see.

Francois Bayrou


Update

Well I was wrong I am pleased to say and Segolene Royal and Nicholas Sarkozy will fight it out for the right to be President de la Republique on May 6th. At present Sarkozy would be seen as the clear favourite but a few more pictures like this, given the sensual nature of the French, may not harm Mme. Royal's cause. Not bad for a 'babe' of 53 :)