Tuesday, October 10, 2006

Cameron: - The souffle politician ?

The United States once had a Democratic Senator named Gary Hart, seen by many as the architect of new Democratic Party thinking, and who, in the Democratic Primaries preceding the 1984 US elections was clearly the front runner, the new kid on the block, young and sexy, the new 'super cool'. Then his campaign was stopped dead in its tracks by traditionalist, 'boring', Walter Mondale who asked one simple question, "Where's the beef?" which effectively, maybe cruelly, painted Hart as the King with no clothes, bereft of solid workable policies, and his campaign crumbled from there on in.

Watching the new leader of the Conservative Party at the party conference last week I was tempted to ask the same question. Never in its history has this once proud 'born-to-rule' Party of traditional right wing values ever embraced so many 'cool' causes, for Cameron is determined to do a Blair - but from the other side of the spectrum - and drag a complaining, traditional party slap bang into the centre ground of British politics.

Now I agree that with a British General Election possibly three years away its not sensible for any Opposition leader to spell out in detail all his policy intentions and how he will pay for them, for this only gives ammunition to the enemy. However there should be a sense of practicality behind the purpose - a feeling that the Shadow Ministers really do know which direction they are headed, but I didn't get that feeling watching them that this is the case.

Cameron was quite clearly creating apoplexy amid some of the elder Tory faithful by his support for gay marriage in particular - but he is prepared to risk that. He wants the votes of all those who stepped into the New Labour camp back in 1997 and who are now disillusioned. It might work. He also refused to countenance privatising the National Health Service, promised a 'Greener' Britain, and was adamant about the need for strong measures to deal with climate change. He promised a fairer 'social agenda' without being specific, yet promised to be tough on rising crime. Never has there been such a 'centre' Tory certainly since Heath back in the early 70s

To me,though, when you are the fifth leader of the Conservative Party since 1997 and the first one on whom Tory hopes are desperately placed - they can't afford another failure - its pretty easy to make these kinds of populist commitments when you don't have the messy job of having to cost them. Cameron is on kind of a roll at the moment although he must be disappointed that his lead in the opinion polls -2 or 3% - is so low when one looks at the mess the Government is in on so many fronts right now and with Blair somehow hovering in Papal 'limbo' between staying and going.

Cameron's problem is going to come when the hard choices have to be made and when his environmentally and socially friendly policies are put under the microscope. He may have another 6 months of honeymoon before that happens but should this current evangelical Tory bandwagon show any signs of the wheels coming off, I suspect Cameron could be destroyed from within, like three of his four predecessors. The Conservative Party in the country wants lower taxes and more individual freedom to determine where its money goes. That's what the great and the good who fund it have always wanted. Cameron, I suspect, can have his fancy liberal values which appeal to the chattering classes..unless and until they cost too much taxpayers money. Then he will be forced to cut and compromise. If that happens after all his commitments I think the Labour Party will eat him alive.

Maybe I am being unfair. Maybe with three years to go, Cameron is doing the right thing in telling the nation where he stands and what he believes, but I think he is dishing up a souffle rather than anything the British electorate can get its teeth into..and if I'm right, the only thing that will stop Labour getting a record 4th term is the Labour Party itself.

3 comments:

Anonymous said...

Brian: It's not often that an aging Fascist like me can agree with (almost) everything you wrote about Cameron and the Tory party!

Where did you go wrong?

Brian Fargher said...

LOL welcome to the blog, Hector and I'm not quite sure where I went wrong..it's got me worried though!!

Brian

Anonymous said...

Fact is, Brian, that the Tories will get another chance, regardless of the next election's results. The old saw: Oppositions don't win elections, governments lose 'em, will come true some time. Western democracies (remember them?) often see a major party wandering in the wilderness for years, apparently becoming increasingly irrelevant and readily portraid by the ruling party as 'unfit to govern', only to ride in on a tide of discontent. Given the state of British Labour, it's only a matter of time - and I say this as a non-partisan.....